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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 63 yards to NYJ 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-B.Berrios ran ob at NYJ 29 for 15 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model