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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 12

New York Jets 9 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model