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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 18

New York Jets 6 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 6-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model