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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 23

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:44) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model