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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 58

New York Jets 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to MIN 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.67 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model