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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 49

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 17-K.Osborn to NYJ 42 for 7 yards (1-A.Gardner; 57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.17 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model