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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.88 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP