Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 4-T.Morstead punts 63 yards to SF 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 3-R.McCloud to SF 23 for 14 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model