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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 17 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at SF 33 for 3 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). San Francisco challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 88-M.Gesicki (57-D.Greenlaw).

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.38 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model