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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 17 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to MIA 28 for 9 yards (31-T.Gipson). 0 YAC

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.32 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model