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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.13 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP