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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model