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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.01 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP