Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 23 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum, 45-D.Flannigan-Fowles). PENALTY on SF-33-T.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.06 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model