Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 10 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(2:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to SF 24, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.19 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model