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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 19. 25-X.Howard to MIA 19 for no gain (11-B.Aiyuk).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.00 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model