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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 28 for 14 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles, 26-S.Womack).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model