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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.11 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP