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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(8:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.25 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP