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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 33 for 2 yards (55-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.32 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model