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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 6

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +4.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP