Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

(8:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to LV 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.22 EP
62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model