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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 15-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model