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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 37

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 2-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model