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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.34 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP