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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 15-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model