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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP