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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model