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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 18

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.12 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP