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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 32 for 5 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.63 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model