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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 21-E.Elliott left guard to IND 21 for 6 yards (5-S.Gilmore, 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.55 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model