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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Dallas Cowboys 34

What Actually Happened

(12:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 36 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland).

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model