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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model