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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to DAL 12 for 1 yard (91-C.Watkins).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model