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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to IND 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model