Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Dallas Cowboys 21

(13:36) 6-M.Haack punts 39 yards to IND 49, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.67 EP
64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 90, worth -5.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model