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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model