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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to DAL 44, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -3.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model