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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 44

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 17-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BUF 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model