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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 11 at the 42
Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(11:53) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.46 EP
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
- 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.37 EP
KICK
-0.43 EP
- 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 47% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT
-0.38 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
