Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 82

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

(2:11) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to BUF 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.24 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model