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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 15 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model