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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 75

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 17-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-N.Hines to BUF 29 for 4 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model