Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 88

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

(13:21) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BUF 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.95 EP
57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model