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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to TB 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model