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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to CLE 5, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-27-Z.McCollum.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.73 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP