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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP