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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to TB 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for 17 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model