Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 85

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

(3:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to CLE 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 38 for 16 yards (88-C.Otton).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.61 EP
53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model