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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to TB 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.82 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP